STraDyM: The Modelling Tool Forecasting Transport Pathways Across Europe
The PATH2ZERO team is developing the STraDyM model (Transport Strategies Dynamic Model) to better understand how different transport policies and measures could support national decarbonisation efforts across Europe. The model will form the foundation of the P2Z_Forecaster, a tool designed to estimate future transport emissions and explore how changes in transport interact with other sectors.
STraDyM consists of a set of country-specific models covering all 27 EU Member States, as well as Norway, Switzerland and the UK. Built using a System Dynamics approach, it can capture how different factors influence one another over time. For example, some changes may accelerate progress towards decarbonisation, while others may slow it down.
The model estimates transport demand, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. It also takes into account broader trends that shape the transport system, such as population changes and economic growth. Because transport challenges differ from one place to another, the model considers different types of regions within each country.
To reflect the complexity of the transport system, STraDyM brings together four key areas: passenger transport, freight transport, road vehicle fleets, and energy use and emissions.
It can also be used to explore the potential impact of a wide range of measures, including new regulations, financial incentives, improvements to public transport, shared mobility services and changes to urban logistics.
Development of the model has been underway since the beginning of PATH2ZERO. The team has gathered data from both national and international sources and worked to ensure the model reflects the realities of different transport systems across Europe. The main building blocks are now being finalised, alongside the data needed to support future analysis.
In the coming months, PATH2ZERO will publish further information on how the model is tested and how it works in practice. A detailed overview of the STraDyM model is expected in February 2026.
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